Chris cooks some numbers
On Halloween, a local webzine called "Fog City Journal", who lists Chris Daly as a columnist, published an article titled "Daly surges ahead 20% in neutral phone sweep" . Underneath the large, fawning photograph of Daly, his wife and son, the article says
"With less than a week to go until Election Day, Supervisor Chris Daly appears to have the lead in the District 6 supervisor's race. A phone sweep of District 6 voters that identified the preferences of 2,190 residents indicated 1,326 (60.5%) favored re-electing Daly, with 864 (39.5%) opposed. Another 809 indicated they were undecided."
A week previously, Matier & Ross -- of the San Francisco Chronicle and SFGate -- wrote in their column "Daly at risk of losing seat, new polls say", in which they wrote "First came a David Binder poll two weeks ago that showed Black surging 10 points ahead of Daly. Not knowing what to believe, the downtown folks commissioned a third poll, just this past week, from Evans and McDonough. The results: Black leading Daly, 37 percent to 31 percent."
Now, to have any political candidate's numbers move 26 to 30 points in 3 weeks is extremely unlikely unless he has just been arrested or outed. (Even Governor Mel Carnahan's numbers didn't budge that much after he died in a plane crash!) And so, smelling something a bit fishy about this turnaround, I did a little sleuthing. The FogCityJournal piece mentions that the poll was conducted "by Zata3, a Washington, DC based calling firm".
What is known about "Zata3"? Very little, in fact, and for a good reason -- they're not really a polling firm, they're a one-person business run by a guy named Brad Chism. Zata3's website is quite revealing. It's tagline reads -- "Advocacy is our calling", and it describes itself thus:
"We help elect Democrats and advance the progressive policy agenda by integrating telephone voter contact programs with a campaign's canvassing, mail and on-line advocacy."
Well, nothing like a little honesty about their agenda! In fact, their website never even mentions that they do polling, which ought to tell us something about whatever numbers they gave to the Daly campaign. The website does, however, talk about a service they offer called "persuasion messaging". Here's what they mean, taken verbatim from their website:
"We start by listening to our clients. We learn about the campaign strategy, targeted voters, plans for electronic media, and other direct voter contact efforts. We then review the available data (voter files, polling data, supporter lists, etc.) Only then do we recommend specific telephone voter contract programs. We script the calling program to drive home the appropriate message(s) and select the call center that best serves the campaign's needs. After we complete the calling program, we analyze the feedback from voters, and pass the reports along to campaigns for tactical or strategic adjusments [sic]."
In case anyone missed the obvious: the Daly Campaign hired a PR firm to poll for them. And not even a real PR firm, but a one-man push-polling business that's been around for less than a year. Zata3's website lists their office address as 1200 G St. NW, suite 800, Washington DC. But in fact, that address is merely a mail-drop (or rather -- an "on-demand professional center", the sort of place that rents mail boxes, has a photocopy machine and a couple of computer workstations. That website describes them as offering "virtual offices".
Compare Zata3 with those two pollsters who came up with numbers showing that Black was ahead of Daly -- David Binder Research, a 23 year-old, 7-person firm based in San Francisco with hundreds of clients, including the San Francisco Bicycle Coalition, the Sierra Club, the Trust for Public Land, the Nature Conservancy, Environmental Defense and loads of other good causes -- and Evans-McDonough -- a national pollsters with offices in Oakland, who have been around for 17 years.
For all we know, Zata3 called people and asked them "Chris Daly, that tireless defender of the poor and oppressed, is running against Rob Black, a lawyer being controlled by Republicans. Are you going to vote for the good progressive, or the conservative tool?" That's the kind of crap that push-polls do; they lead and mislead. That's NOT the stuff that legit pollsters do, as they have their reputations at stake. But Brad Chism, somewhere back east? What's he got to gain from asking objective, non-leading questions? Or, more to the point: what's he got to lose from asking leading questions?
Faced with harsh numbers from two entirely legitimate and highly respected polling firms, why would the Daly campaign choose to respond by hiring an out-of-state, no-reputation, no-history, no-office, 1-man "persuasion messaging" service? My guess is that Daly tried to find any legitimate pollster who would produce some numbers in their favor, but all of them said "sorry, we can't do that". Then someone trawled up Mr. Chism, who saw the money and said "I can give you any number you want". I can think of no other explanation for why Daly's campaign would've gone him to conduct their only poll.
"With less than a week to go until Election Day, Supervisor Chris Daly appears to have the lead in the District 6 supervisor's race. A phone sweep of District 6 voters that identified the preferences of 2,190 residents indicated 1,326 (60.5%) favored re-electing Daly, with 864 (39.5%) opposed. Another 809 indicated they were undecided."
A week previously, Matier & Ross -- of the San Francisco Chronicle and SFGate -- wrote in their column "Daly at risk of losing seat, new polls say", in which they wrote "First came a David Binder poll two weeks ago that showed Black surging 10 points ahead of Daly. Not knowing what to believe, the downtown folks commissioned a third poll, just this past week, from Evans and McDonough. The results: Black leading Daly, 37 percent to 31 percent."
Now, to have any political candidate's numbers move 26 to 30 points in 3 weeks is extremely unlikely unless he has just been arrested or outed. (Even Governor Mel Carnahan's numbers didn't budge that much after he died in a plane crash!) And so, smelling something a bit fishy about this turnaround, I did a little sleuthing. The FogCityJournal piece mentions that the poll was conducted "by Zata3, a Washington, DC based calling firm".
What is known about "Zata3"? Very little, in fact, and for a good reason -- they're not really a polling firm, they're a one-person business run by a guy named Brad Chism. Zata3's website is quite revealing. It's tagline reads -- "Advocacy is our calling", and it describes itself thus:
"We help elect Democrats and advance the progressive policy agenda by integrating telephone voter contact programs with a campaign's canvassing, mail and on-line advocacy."
Well, nothing like a little honesty about their agenda! In fact, their website never even mentions that they do polling, which ought to tell us something about whatever numbers they gave to the Daly campaign. The website does, however, talk about a service they offer called "persuasion messaging". Here's what they mean, taken verbatim from their website:
"We start by listening to our clients. We learn about the campaign strategy, targeted voters, plans for electronic media, and other direct voter contact efforts. We then review the available data (voter files, polling data, supporter lists, etc.) Only then do we recommend specific telephone voter contract programs. We script the calling program to drive home the appropriate message(s) and select the call center that best serves the campaign's needs. After we complete the calling program, we analyze the feedback from voters, and pass the reports along to campaigns for tactical or strategic adjusments [sic]."
In case anyone missed the obvious: the Daly Campaign hired a PR firm to poll for them. And not even a real PR firm, but a one-man push-polling business that's been around for less than a year. Zata3's website lists their office address as 1200 G St. NW, suite 800, Washington DC. But in fact, that address is merely a mail-drop (or rather -- an "on-demand professional center", the sort of place that rents mail boxes, has a photocopy machine and a couple of computer workstations. That website describes them as offering "virtual offices".
Compare Zata3 with those two pollsters who came up with numbers showing that Black was ahead of Daly -- David Binder Research, a 23 year-old, 7-person firm based in San Francisco with hundreds of clients, including the San Francisco Bicycle Coalition, the Sierra Club, the Trust for Public Land, the Nature Conservancy, Environmental Defense and loads of other good causes -- and Evans-McDonough -- a national pollsters with offices in Oakland, who have been around for 17 years.
For all we know, Zata3 called people and asked them "Chris Daly, that tireless defender of the poor and oppressed, is running against Rob Black, a lawyer being controlled by Republicans. Are you going to vote for the good progressive, or the conservative tool?" That's the kind of crap that push-polls do; they lead and mislead. That's NOT the stuff that legit pollsters do, as they have their reputations at stake. But Brad Chism, somewhere back east? What's he got to gain from asking objective, non-leading questions? Or, more to the point: what's he got to lose from asking leading questions?
Faced with harsh numbers from two entirely legitimate and highly respected polling firms, why would the Daly campaign choose to respond by hiring an out-of-state, no-reputation, no-history, no-office, 1-man "persuasion messaging" service? My guess is that Daly tried to find any legitimate pollster who would produce some numbers in their favor, but all of them said "sorry, we can't do that". Then someone trawled up Mr. Chism, who saw the money and said "I can give you any number you want". I can think of no other explanation for why Daly's campaign would've gone him to conduct their only poll.
posted by the clicker at 3:43 PM
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